A better way to predict cardiovascular risk
Since the 1980s, enormous progress has been made in understanding cardiovascular
disease (CVD) in women. Recent findings help explain why CVD (heart disease
and stroke) has been more difficult to diagnose and treat in women than
in men: heart attack symptoms are often different; standard diagnostic
tests don’t predict heart problems as reliably; and women
may not get as much benefit from such treatments as angioplasty and bypass
Also a lot has been learned about the biology of cardiovascular disease.
It’s not just a matter of cholesterol clogging the arterial plumbing.
Low-level inflammation also contributes to the atherosclerotic plaques
that can block blood flow to the heart and brain. Researchers at Boston’s
Brigham and Women’s Hospital found an association between high-sensitivity
C-reactive protein (hsCRP) — a marker for inflammation — and
the risk of having a heart attack or stroke in healthy men and women.
Despite these advances, the usual models for predicting CVD in women
don’t take into account markers of inflammation. A study published
in February 2007 proposes a model that incorporates hsCRP and promises
greater precision in identifying women at risk.
What’s wrong with the current model?
To determine the risk for cardiovascular disease, clinicians look at
factors such as age, cholesterol levels, high blood pressure, smoking
status, and diabetes. These factors are incorporated into the Framingham
Risk Score, a risk-assessment tool. This tool is used to evaluate the
10-year risk of having a heart attack in both women and men. All high-risk
women and some in the moderate-risk groups are advised to modify their
diet and other lifestyle factors and possibly take medications that lower
LDL “bad” cholesterol.
The trouble is that up to 20% of heart attacks occur in women without
any of the major risk factors covered by the Framingham model, partly
because that model doesn’t include markers of inflammation or genetic
predisposition, both of which are important in CVD.
The moderate-risk groups are the most puzzling. Many doctors suspect
that some of these women are actually at high risk and need more intensive
treatment, so they have turned to hsCRP testing (which can be performed
at the time of cholesterol evaluation) to identify those at higher risk
than the Framingham model would suggest. A woman who is at moderate risk
by Framingham criteria but has an hsCRP level greater than 3.0 mg/L could
actually be at high risk even if her cholesterol levels are normal.
Finding a new predictive model
The Brigham and Women’s researchers set out to develop a risk
model for women that combined newer risk markers, including hsCRP, with
traditional risk factors and family history. They assessed 35 risk factors
among 24,558 initially healthy women ages 45 and over.
The researchers used data from two-thirds of the women selected at random
to develop a risk model that takes better account of both inflammatory
biomarkers and heredity. The new model contains eight risk factors, five
of which are familiar from the Framingham Risk Score — age, smoking
status, systolic blood pressure, HDL (“good”) cholesterol,
and total cholesterol — plus hsCRP, parental history of a heart
attack before age 60, and for women who have diabetes, hemoglobin A1c
(a measure of blood sugar control).
To test the model, the researchers applied it to the remaining one-third
of study participants and found that it was more accurate than the Framingham
model. Of the women whose Framingham risk scores placed them at moderate
risk, 40% to 50% were reclassified into higher- or lower-risk groups
that better matched their actual rate of cardiovascular events.
This model, called the Reynolds Risk Score, could help clinicians target
women who could benefit from more aggressive preventive treatment, including
diet and exercise, a statin or other cholesterol-lowering medication,
and possibly aspirin (which has been shown to reduce the risk of heart
attack in women ages 65 and over).
Reynolds Risk Score factors
- Blood pressure
- hsCRP level
- Total cholesterol
- HDL (“good”) cholesterol
- Smoking status
- Family history of a heart attack before age 60
- Hemoglobin A1c (in women who have diabetes)
You can calculate your Reynolds Risk Score at www.reynoldsriskscore.org.
The model still needs more testing, as the authors point out. For example,
most of the study participants were white professional women; the results
might not apply fully to other groups.
The evergreen recommendations for reducing cardiovascular risk haven’t
changed: Don’t smoke, actively or passively; control your weight
and cholesterol with diet and exercise; and if you have high blood pressure
or diabetes, do what’s necessary to get it under control — including
appropriate medications. If your cholesterol is normal but you have another
major risk factor for cardiovascular disease, it’s worth asking
your doctor whether hsCRP testing could help clarify your overall risk.
June 2007 update
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